M&A monitor Vlerick Business School

A cautious recovery and clear opportunities heading into 2026

The latest edition of the M&A Monitor (based on a survey of 158 Belgian M&A specialists) reveals a market that is cautiously recovering, yet simultaneously shows clear differences between segments and a shifting dynamic in negotiations.

For entrepreneurs considering selling or buying, this conveys one key message: the market is active but has become more selective.

2025: Cautious Recovery, but Not Equally Strong Everywhere

After a relatively weak 2024, the Belgian M&A market is picking up slightly again.

• The small business segment is clearly performing better: more than half of the experts see growth. These deals are primarily driven by entrepreneurs handing over their businesses due to retirement.
• The segment of medium-sized to larger companies is under pressure: nearly half of the specialists see a decline here.
• Larger transactions benefit from economies of scale and technological advancements.

The conclusion is clear: market dynamics today are strongly determined by the life stage of entrepreneurs and the strategic context of buyers.

📈 Outlook for 2026: optimism, but with uncertainty

The overall sentiment for 2026 is positive:

• 56% expect more acquisitions
• 30% even expect growth of more than 10%
• Only 17% expect a decline

At the same time, uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions, which could dampen confidence in the short term.

👥 Succession remains the main driver

The main reason for selling a business remains remarkably stable:

• The entrepreneur’s retirement remains by far the main reason
• In addition, there is also the belief that an external party can better leverage the growth potential
• Tax pressure or AI are hardly a factor for the time being

In other words: at its core, the acquisition market remains a succession market.

💰 In most cases, acquisitions create value

The study shows that:

• 75% of all acquisitions create value for the buyer
• With buy-and-build strategies, this figure rises to as high as 80%

The focus is increasingly shifting from cost optimization to growth and talent development.

⚖️ Negotiations are becoming tougher for sellers

Average valuation remains relatively stable at 6.4 times EBITDA for all types of transactions;

5 times EBITDA for smaller companies

However, the negotiation dynamics are changing:

• In nearly 1 in 2 deals, the final price is lower than the initial offer
• Ten years ago, that was only 1 in 4

Better preparation by buyers and stronger due diligence (including through data and AI) strengthen their position in negotiations.

🏭 Some notable figures

• Significant differences by company size and sector
• Technology remains the most expensive sector: 9.7x EBITDA ( primarily very large companies)
• Banks are financing more transactions: NFD (debt ratio) rises from 2.9 to 3.4x EBITDA

🔎 What does this mean for entrepreneurs?

The Belgian M&A market remains active but has become more selective and professional. Proper preparation, strategic positioning, and realistic valuation are more important than ever.

For entrepreneurs considering a transfer or sale, one trend remains dominant: the market is there—but quality and preparation make all the difference.

Click this link to discover the key insights and view the full report: Small deals gain momentum, mid-market remains under pressure.

Do you have questions about the report? Feel free to contact us at:
camille.stanley@vlerick.com
mathieu.luypaert@vlerick.com